The Economics of Terrorism
The Arab Labor Organization recently issued a report (available on its website) about unemployment in the Arab world that brought me back to thinking about the role that economics might play in the spread of terrorism.
The conventional wisdom is that terrorism does not have all that much to do with economics because the poorest countries in the world are not where the terror problems lie. That much seems rather obvious. I can't claim to have much experience in this, but it does seem to me that if a person is starving, his first priority isn't to figure out how to kill whoever he decides is responsible for that, but to get food.
But if we admit that we aren't going to just correlate per capita GDP to propensity for terrorism, is there other economic data that might be relevant? In the ALO report, it does seem to me that there is. This is not to suggest that economics is all we need to understand this, because it is not, any more than traditional Muslim doctrine is, or societal changes in the Muslim world or anything else. All of these have a role, my only point is the economic factors are not to be ignored.
The real issue with unemployment is not so much its level, which is high but not outrageously so (15% roughly on average), but who happens to be unemployed. Nearly one quarter of people under 30 are unemployed, suggesting that the economies are not growing with the population, leading to a slow drop in per capita wealth. Some have discussed this to some extent, how a stagnating economy can lead to extremism with people who have no hope for a better future brandishing frightening ideologies to supplant that despair.
There was something else though that I have never heard talked about. People with higher education were many times more likely to be unemployed than anyone else, including illiterates. That is counterintuitive and I would imagine contrary to every other nation I can think of. Some of that is deceptive because it seems to include subsistence peasants, but still, for employment purposes, high school is better than college, college is better than master's, master's better than doctorate. Many times over, ten times harder with higher education to find a job in Egypt, five times harder in Morocco, three times harder in Algeria. The report described this as a "drop in coordination and harmony between centers of learning and the needs of the employment market on the one hand, and the lack of effective employment services on the other." It also suggested it creates hardships on families and in the housing markets, all of which is true, but to me, the bigger problem is this:
There's a great deal of extremism in the Middle East, a lot of resentment, a lot of anger. And into that mix youth are rising who cannot find jobs. And the worst off in job procurement are those who have been to schools a few years, with doctorates, people more susceptible to extremist ideologies because they can actually read and learn about them. An illiterate peasant might be mad, or not, but he can't really know much about Sayyid Qutb or Osama Bin Laden more than what is said in the village. He probably also has more limited means of travel and communication. The educated fellow with no job though, the one schooled and steeped in extremism from the streets, who is angry that the education has led to nothing, who can read, who can travel, who can preach, who can convert--that guy is a real danger. That the numbers of such people are growing, according to this report anyway, is not good news. Not good at all.
Finally, a personal announcement. I'll be in Iraq for almost a month, going back finally to that land I love (from this land I love) for work and for play. I'll be doing some human rights work, some work on my book (more on that later) and seeing family and friends and in laws of course. Fear not and trust in God, I will be fine if He wills it.
I am leaving tonight, and so probably won't be able to approve comments or update the blog for a few days. When we resume, while in Iraq, I'll try to devote my posts to my impressions of that country, even if they deviate at times from stricter considerations of the shari'a.
HAH
The conventional wisdom is that terrorism does not have all that much to do with economics because the poorest countries in the world are not where the terror problems lie. That much seems rather obvious. I can't claim to have much experience in this, but it does seem to me that if a person is starving, his first priority isn't to figure out how to kill whoever he decides is responsible for that, but to get food.
But if we admit that we aren't going to just correlate per capita GDP to propensity for terrorism, is there other economic data that might be relevant? In the ALO report, it does seem to me that there is. This is not to suggest that economics is all we need to understand this, because it is not, any more than traditional Muslim doctrine is, or societal changes in the Muslim world or anything else. All of these have a role, my only point is the economic factors are not to be ignored.
The real issue with unemployment is not so much its level, which is high but not outrageously so (15% roughly on average), but who happens to be unemployed. Nearly one quarter of people under 30 are unemployed, suggesting that the economies are not growing with the population, leading to a slow drop in per capita wealth. Some have discussed this to some extent, how a stagnating economy can lead to extremism with people who have no hope for a better future brandishing frightening ideologies to supplant that despair.
There was something else though that I have never heard talked about. People with higher education were many times more likely to be unemployed than anyone else, including illiterates. That is counterintuitive and I would imagine contrary to every other nation I can think of. Some of that is deceptive because it seems to include subsistence peasants, but still, for employment purposes, high school is better than college, college is better than master's, master's better than doctorate. Many times over, ten times harder with higher education to find a job in Egypt, five times harder in Morocco, three times harder in Algeria. The report described this as a "drop in coordination and harmony between centers of learning and the needs of the employment market on the one hand, and the lack of effective employment services on the other." It also suggested it creates hardships on families and in the housing markets, all of which is true, but to me, the bigger problem is this:
There's a great deal of extremism in the Middle East, a lot of resentment, a lot of anger. And into that mix youth are rising who cannot find jobs. And the worst off in job procurement are those who have been to schools a few years, with doctorates, people more susceptible to extremist ideologies because they can actually read and learn about them. An illiterate peasant might be mad, or not, but he can't really know much about Sayyid Qutb or Osama Bin Laden more than what is said in the village. He probably also has more limited means of travel and communication. The educated fellow with no job though, the one schooled and steeped in extremism from the streets, who is angry that the education has led to nothing, who can read, who can travel, who can preach, who can convert--that guy is a real danger. That the numbers of such people are growing, according to this report anyway, is not good news. Not good at all.
Finally, a personal announcement. I'll be in Iraq for almost a month, going back finally to that land I love (from this land I love) for work and for play. I'll be doing some human rights work, some work on my book (more on that later) and seeing family and friends and in laws of course. Fear not and trust in God, I will be fine if He wills it.
I am leaving tonight, and so probably won't be able to approve comments or update the blog for a few days. When we resume, while in Iraq, I'll try to devote my posts to my impressions of that country, even if they deviate at times from stricter considerations of the shari'a.
HAH
There is an interesting correlation to what you say and the backgrounds of some of the leading terrorists.
Here is a recent article on the subject of terrorists who hold degrees in engineering:
http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TQLYG40BDXHP4QSNDLOSKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=206902291
I look at our western society and its wealth and its bankrupt ideologies and and nearly non-existent traditions and I get disgusted.
I suspect an unemployed Muslim with a degree can look at his rich traditions and ideologies and and become disgusted.
Anyway, take care and have fun on your trip.
Reply to this